Prophecy of Fear [Megathread]

[skiz]

Simple question.
How do you get the value for "TimeSinceLastSuccessfulProc" in the RPPM formula applied at pull (the very first hit on the boss) ?

How does "TimeSinceLastChance" work ? Why do you consider it is 10 ? I don't really understand.

Thanks !

Blizzards RPPM Formular that gives the proccchance X for a given cast = Proccchance * Bad Luck Protection.

More in Detail:

• Proccchance: i.e. 2(ppm) * 1.22(haste) * 1.4(time since the last chance to proc) / 60 (sec per min) = 5.693%.
• Bad luck protection: MAX(1, 1+((TimeSinceLastSuccessfulProc/AverageProcInterval)-1.5)*3)

Variables. Most of them are straight forward. But these 'Time since last procc chance' and 'time since last procc' are sometimes mistaken.

• ppm = value from trinket. I.e. 1.5 for Prophecy of fear on frostmages
• haste = most trinkets dont scale with haste, so 1.0 is used. Otherwise 1.hastepercent
• time since the last chance to proc = This one is used in the proccchance calculation.
• TimeSinceLastSuccessfulProc = used for bad luck protection.
• AverageProcInterval = 60 / PPM * haste.

'time since the last chance to proc' according to Blizzard:

• It calculates the difference in time since the last chance to proc. It uses that time to determine the chance for that event to trigger a proc.
• For example, if you have 22% Haste, it was 1.4sec since the last chance to proc, and you’ve got Windsong, then the chance to proc is 2(ppm) * 1.22(haste) * 1.4(time since last chance) / 60 (sec per min) = 5.693%.
• The ‘time since the last chance to proc’ is capped at 10sec, so that your first attack of a fight isn’t a guaranteed proc.

http://us.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic/6893549789

Idea behind it:

Regardless of how you’re attacking or healing, slow or fast, with DoTs or direct heals, whatever, you can expect to get the same proc frequency, on average.

Basically, you do "bank up" proccchances over time and once you hit you do "release" that chance. It is actually a very interesting formular that tries to keep the expectation value identical for every attackspeed. Expectation value is usually the sum of proccchances for a given attackspeed.

Sadly, ingametesting shows that 'time since the last chance to proc' has some errors:

• It may be calculated wrong on the pull leading to way to high proccchances.
• Some spells do reset that value while not beeing able to trigger a spell: some parts of frozen orb.
• Some spells do not recalculate that value, doubling the current proccchance: Prismatic crystal hits, probably felmouth frenzy. I.e. you hit your PC with Arcaneblast. For that arcaneblast hit you'll calculate that proccchance and stuff like that. PC gets hittet, Pc hits a target. PC uses the same proccchance as your arcaneblast. (While it should be 'time since the last chance to proc' = 0, which would be a 0% proccchance.)

'TimeSinceLastSuccessfulProc* according to blizzard:

We also now keep track of time since the last successful proc (this is different from the time since last chance to proc), capped at 1000 sec. Multiply the proc chance by MAX(1, 1+((TimeSinceLastSuccessfulProc/AverageProcInterval)-1.5)*3). For example, if a proc has an average proc interval of 45 sec, and it’s been 72 sec since your last successful proc, you’ll get a 1.3x multiplier to your proc chance. If you’ve been out of combat for a few min, and it’s been 5 min since your last successful proc, you’ll get a whopping 16.5x multiplier to your proc chance.

http://us.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic/8197741003

Well, there was another bluepost that told us that the "TimeSinceLastSuccessfulProc" gets reseted to 120 sec on pull. Cant find it atm. (They changed it from 90 seconds to 120 seconds back in MoP)

[Aivie]

This is very interesting !
I understand better now, thank you

[Searix]

OP here.

I can admit I haven't researched as much as i should have the 'best opener', and it seems like we're not following the trends (namely the full arcane mage guild: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yod5J7ak4L0" target="_blank )

My question is why are these top guilds using that spec (which appears to be dropping crystal at 0 seconds AB0?) and if that's what they're really doing

[Curnivore]

Because their raid uses the ring at 0.There is no benefit to not use the crystal at that point. It would be a loss.

I would use it a second before the pull even since it delays DPS with a GCD.

[phenix]

I have a question that i don't know if it has already been made and/or answered, i didn't find it at least.

In a scenario where you have Mark of Doom up on 2 targets at the same time, those being PC and the Boss, will the explosion from the PC's Mark of Doom trigger the other?

This isn't something that happens often, but it has happened to me a few times, and i'm curious if dealing damage to the crystal will cause the explosion of that one (since its not crystal damage) to trigger the one on the Boss. I imagine the most likely answer is no, and no matter the answer the target to damage should always be the crystal in this scenario.

[yungg]

You'd be correct. If doom nova damage could trigger mark of doom to explode, it would be incredibly problematic.

[Curnivore]

It would create an infinite number of cascading explosions that have no end. It has a limit. It probably is a game-wide limit for various similar effects.

[Searix]

OP here: Good news everyone! I found a good way to get consistent Crystal PoF on archimonde

Drop crystal here (notice the stone under the crystal)



Ask tank to move boss back like a yard on the pull.

This will always proc PoF (i drop trinket at 3 seconds and hit it at 1 second), and seems like it should work on every boss. Try to figure out where the safe zone is (a little outside their circles), and preferably find it so if you pull you dont wipe the raid.

[Rinoa]

It's the same principle as on Kormrok. Almost assuredly a DPS decrease over doing it the normal way. The reason why it's done on Kormrok is because the boss *has* to move anyway.

[Searix]

Why is this a dps decrease? I'm 5/5 getting PoF to proc on crystal tonight and am only losing the first hit

[Raaiven]

Why is this a dps decrease? I'm 5/5 getting PoF to proc on crystal tonight and am only losing the first hit

Look dude, opening that way is not bad at all. It's a way of consistently having an average opener.
Realistically though these days since the ring gets popped almost immediately on pull, the BEST you are given is 2-3 seconds to build up 1-2 archane charges (hopefully PoF doesn't proc on those) and then land your PC and lose hell on it. This scenario gives MUCH more dps, albait higher risk.

If you want average, no risk openers go with your way.

If you want highest dps possible and pursue top parsing then go with the second scenario.

[Searix]

Why is this a dps decrease? I'm 5/5 getting PoF to proc on crystal tonight and am only losing the first hit

Look dude, opening that way is not bad at all. It's a way of consistently having an average opener.
Realistically though these days since the ring gets popped almost immediately on pull, the BEST you are given is 2-3 seconds to build up 1-2 archane charges (hopefully PoF doesn't proc on those) and then land your PC and lose hell on it. This scenario gives MUCH more dps, albait higher risk.

If you want average, no risk openers go with your way.

If you want highest dps possible and pursue top parsing then go with the second scenario.

Oh, just occurred to me our guild does 0 sec ring and i do 0 ab

Also drop it at 3 seconds since it's not in range to cleave on him anyways

[Raaiven]

If you are like me and instead of AFKing in your garrison for days you come back once every 10 minutes to LUL over your burst on garrison dummies, you might have noticed that if you try placing PC and then burning, PoF ALWAYS 100% procs on your PC despite it being in range of 2 target dummies which should have resulted in a 33.3% chance instead of 100%.
(Assuming you were out of combat long enough for it to reach 100% proc on first cast.

Now that would only make sense if AOE damage is actually read in order according to your target, in this case targetting and damaging PC ensures that the system reads the very FIRST damage instance to be on PC thus proccing PoF on PC(assuming you are not in combat), then it possibly randomly proceeds to read the damage on the rest of the targets.

Now if you enter boss combat we all know that PoF's chance resets to a certain value which causes inconsistencies with the above theory since your first damage instance isn't at 100% proc rate.

Where the above MIGHT be useful is, if you are in a raid environment you CAN guarantee your PoF to proc on your PC(without planting it outside of boss range) as long as you ninja pull before entering combat, which admittedly isn't that practical but hey.

[Curnivore]

if you try placing PC and then burning, PoF ALWAYS 100% procs on your PC despite it being in range of 2 target dummies which should have resulted in a 33.3% chance instead of 100%.

The character 1st hits the crystal. AFTER THAT, doom attempts to apply to other targets via the AOE of the crystal. So it has the highest chance on the crystal.


Question: Does it really ever reach 100% chance? We had so many discussions lately with contradictory statements that I lost track. But what I'm sure about is that is definitely isn't at the max potential after a fast re-pull of a boss.

[Searix]

https://www.warcraftlogs.com/reports/py ... iew=events" target="_blank

Was looking around on warcraft logs, looks like the top mage parse (read: top parse of anyone in the world) is doing AB0 -> drag boss like i described above.

Explains why it looks like he doesnt dps until 3.290 seconds, and also explains Prismatic Crystal expiring at 13.645

---

Like others mentioned this isn't the highest potential damage, AB2 is (and 2nd ranked mage parse had a 5.6m nithramus hit). This however is much more consistent

[Curnivore]

They use the ring 2 seconds into the fight so it won't be the same with those that don't. On a sidenote, that might be a very bad strategy for guilds that do not stack burst specs because there is an advantage in dropping the boss below 85% before the 15second mark. Due to voodoo related to overlaps, the second doomfire is delayed that way.

[yungg]

https://www.warcraftlogs.com/reports/py ... iew=events

Was looking around on warcraft logs, looks like the top mage parse (read: top parse of anyone in the world) is doing AB0 -> drag boss like i described above.

Explains why it looks like he doesnt dps until 3.290 seconds, and also explains Prismatic Crystal expiring at 13.645

---

Like others mentioned this isn't the highest potential damage, AB2 is (and 2nd ranked mage parse had a 5.6m nithramus hit). This however is much more consistent

Is he though, he casts PC at 1.5s and his first AB on PC is at 3.29s, which also hits the boss.

[Searix]

good catch

[Searix]

So i was reading a 'why can't we skip 2nd doomfire' thread on reddit, and i was making the argument that mastery > haste for phase 1 burning, but couldn't back it up so i checked simcraft.

What i found was quite shocking

# Gear Summary
# gear_ilvl=743.53
# gear_stamina=7056
# gear_intellect=5310
# gear_spell_power=2666
# gear_crit_rating=1737
# gear_haste_rating=1406
# gear_mastery_rating=2000
# gear_multistrike_rating=1276
# gear_versatility_rating=391
# gear_leech_rating=144
# gear_avoidance_rating=149
# gear_armor=1210
# set_bonus=tier18_2pc=1
# set_bonus=tier18_4pc=1

Fight duration: 100 seconds





Basically it looks like Haste is trash for bloodlust skipping doomfire strat. I took the fight time down to 100 seconds (shortest i could, so that's 60 seconds outside of bloodlust), and I'm even running super short on haste.

Here's a regular where i'm back to haste > mastery, but again i'm super short on haste compared to other mages

[Rinoa]

You can enter commands in the Override tab in SimC in order to force it to do certain things which you cannot do with the built in drop down menus. One of these things is dictating fight length. Courtesy of Frosted, here are three commands which you can use to do so:

vary_fight_length=0

fixed_time=1

max_time=x