[OMGMATHS]Level 30 Talent Row Analysis

[Berlinia]

Hello fellow mages

I have been seeing things around in mmo champion regarding the level 30 talents and that many people fall for example into the trap of using Flameglow on Heroic Thok for example. I thought I should figure out the math behind the talents and when each one becomes more powerful. I am aware that the main reason that Temporal Shield is preferred over Ice Barrier is that it is not on the GCD making it a straightup dps increase. My attitude in this post is NOT what provides the best dps increase, but what are the pro's and con's of each talent, and in which situations each surpasses the others.

Keep in mind that this is a post that in several points isn't realistic. This is a pure analysis

Temporal Shield

Pro's
-Is not on the Global Cooldown giving us a defensive cooldown without diminishing our dps
-Increases percentually with the damage taken and your stats do not affect it's value
-Due to the healing component it practically negates all damage taken within the 4 seconds that it is active (however it is not an immunity).

Con's
-Needs to be timed correctly
-Is only powerful when you take a very strong hit at a specific timeframe. Frequent small hits make it not worth it.
-Smartheals can often overwrite the healing part of the spell
Edit: Has a mana cost which is a DPS loss for Arcane Mages (Credits to Volta)

Ice Barrier

Pro's
-Increases your effective healthpool
-Can be used on cooldown without having to worry it will go to waste
-Scales with spellpower making it more effective during a trinket proc

Con's
-It's on the GCD
-Scales with spellpower making it more effective during a trinket proc. The GCD with the Spellpower could be used on a more hard hitting ability instead

Flameglow

Pro's
-Can be absurdly strong if you take very frequent hits of any value.

Con's
-Currently the healing model doesn't support the niche Flameglow shines in


Okay so let's get to the calculations shall we?
Let's assume a full BiS 581 item level for Arcane mage which provides an average 50.000 Spellpower.

Situation a)

Flameglow:
The maximum absorb value of Flameglow is SP(spc) * 0.15 = 50.000 * 0.15 = 7500.
For every hit you take the maximum value Flameglow can absorb is 7500 up to a 30% of the attack. This means that the maximum absorb value of Flameglow takes place up to a value of 7.500 * 100/30 = 25.000. Taking damage under this value on every hit reduces the absolute value of Flameglow's absorption effect, but practically grants you 30% damage reduction.
When one of your trinkets procs, the Absorb Value becomes 66.000 * 0.15 = 9.900 = 9,9k (making the necessary damage taken 9.9k * 3.3 = 33k)
When two trinkets proc then the absorb value becomes 82.000 * 0.15 = 12.300 = 12k (making the necessary damage taken 12k * 3.3 = 40k)

Ice Barrier:
Ice Barrier can offer several different values due to all the intellect procs we have, but I am just going to analyze the base Ice Barrier value, when KTT procs and when Expanded Mind (PBoI trinket) procs.
-With the standard 50.000 Spellpower Ice Barrier grants an absorb shield of 4580 + 50.000 * 3.3 = 169.580 = 170.000 = 170k. So on a 25 second cooldown you have an effective healthpool of Health + 170.000
-With the additional KTT or Expanded Mind procs, your Spellpower increases to 50.000 + 16.000 = 66.000
The value of Ice Barrier then becomes 4580 + 66.000*3.3 = 222.380 = 222.000 = 222k. The total effective healthpool of your character increased by an additional 52k during a trinket proc
-When both trinkets are proced at the same time your total Spellpower becomes 50.000 + 16.000 + 16.000 = 82.000
The value of your Ice Barrier then becomes 4580 + 3.3 * 82.000 = 275.180 = 275k. This makes your healthpool again an additional 53k bigger.

What we can figure out from these results is that Flameglow and Ice Barrier scale linearly with your Spellpower. This means that the more powerfull your character becomes, the more powerful these talents become.

Temporal Shield:
Temporal Shield has a very simple function attached to it. The Absorption value during the 4 seconds Temporal Shield is active is 15% of the damage taken. Any damage that passes through get;s turned into a Healing over Time effect that lasts for 6 seconds.
What this means is that spellpower does not affect the value of Temporal Shield but the effect itself becomes more powerful the higher the damage taken is during these 4 seconds. With the current healing model where sudden bursts of damage are the mainstream, Temporal Shield has a very high value.

So let's start the comparisons.
Flameglow vs Ice Barrier

Ice Barrier absorbs roughly 170k when under no Intellect procs whilst being in a 25 second cooldown. Flameglow outscales Ice Barrier when within those 25 seconds the absorb effect ticks more than these 170k. Due to the maximum damage reduction value being 7.500 (7.5k) you need to take 170k / 7.5k = 22.6 hits of 25.000 damage. This is the only time is worth it.
Equal calculatons apply when an intellect proc takes place and the results are always 22.6 hits of maximum damage.

Now Temporal Shield.
We have already concluded that with no Intellect procs you need to take 22.6 hits of 25.000 damage within 25 seconds, which results in 0.9 hits of 25k per second for Flameglow to be worth it. This equals to 1 hit 25k * 0.9 = 22.5k damage taken per second. This get's translated to getting hit for 25k every 1.106 seconds. Anything more than that favours Ice Barrier over Flameglow. When does Temporal Shield get into the picture?
We have already given TS the attribute that it practically negates a hit due to the healing effect attached to it. So the calculation is simple. When does Ice Barrier negate a hit? When during the first 4 seconds of Ice Barrier you take damage over 170k (or 222k/270k depending on intellect procs). So if you take any higher amount of damage during the first 4 seconds of Temporal Shield (when it is active) the defensive portion of TS is stronger.

Summary
If more than 0.9 hits/second of a value under or even over 25k favors Flameglow. (this is not an average. You need to take exactly 0.9 hits/second)
For Clarity this translates to 25k every 1.106 seconds
If any damage over 170k at full BiS favors Temporal Shield
All damage in between favors Ice barrier.

I realize this might not be complete. If anyone can help out or has constructive criticism go ahead. Cheers

Edit: Just to adress concerns, I am most certainly NOT advising usage of Ice Barrier over Temporal Shield on SoO or During int procs. I am just showing when each has a greater defensive value. Calm your tities and continue to snapshot your ass of during Int procs is my advice for SoO

[Komma]

You might want to mention that temporal shield doesn't restore HP unless actual damage is taken, ie. the mage loses HP. Mechanics like Malkorok's Shield, or heavy duty disc priest shields, prevent you from taking the damage required to take benefit of the Temporal Ripples regen. This is a big factor in why TS isn't as good a survival option on Malkorok.