I don't need more Crit - says The SimC

[Greddy]

(Hello),

...because with my 33.16 x 1.5 + 50 I have 99.74% crit. So there's only 0.26% chance that my Ice lance won't crit. But "Details!" shows this: https://imgur.com/a/nVvJo - which is quite more than 0.26%

...while Simc says this: https://imgur.com/a/Pq5Id - So I shouldn't worry.

Is "Details!" showing it wrong? Because 2+ million for an Ice lance seems to be crit, not a normal hit. Is it a bug? Am i reading it wrong? Should I stick to the "rule" - "you're fine if you're over 31% crit?

EDIT WHILE I'M WRITING THIS: logs showing the same : https://imgur.com/a/ElHm3

NOTE: On this fight, I am aware, that one or two lances weren't shattered, the fight was a mess and I didn't play it well, but not 9. Not even five, really two at most. But those non-crit lances (approximately same amount) can be seen on every fight in ToS.

This really bugs me.
Thank you very much in advance

[Drozzy]

There is a known issue with Simcraft devaluing crit early because of how it generates stat weights (so it is still your best stat up until 13334 crit rating aka 33.34%). However, I think the most likely culprit for the low crit rate is Splitting Ice cleave. Ice lances that you shatter with flurry (winter's chill) only shatter on the main target. So while moontalon was up, any flurry->IL combos you did would have 1 shatter and 1 nonshatter.

[Greddy]

There is a known issue with Simcraft devaluing crit early because of how it generates stat weights (so it is still your best stat up until 13334 crit rating aka 33.34%). However, I think the most likely culprit for the low crit rate is Splitting Ice cleave. Ice lances that you shatter with flurry (winter's chill) only shatter on the main target. So while moontalon was up, any flurry->IL combos you did would have 1 shatter and 1 nonshatter.

Ah, so I should go for the cap? I've heard someone from guild Limit (I think), Preheat maybe (is that the mage?), say something along the lines "over 31% is fine". Maybe I've heard wrong.
The moontalon definitely caused some of those non crits, I totally didn't realize that. Though, as I said, I see these numbers on several fights and if the "Details!" are right, there are 2 milion+ non crits, which is a lot for non crit.

I'll look into it more on our next farm, meanwhile I'll try to get the crit cap.

Thank you

[Xinder]

I wouldn't worry too much about crit cap if you're sacrificing something like haste/vers in order to try and achieve it. At a certain point the odds of a un-shattered IL vs the cost of losing raw dmg increases like vers sort of win out and you don't worry as much about 33%. I would agree with the concept about 31% or higher you're fine and don't go over the 33.34% if you can help it. So if you get a piece that is no crit and you lose a percent of crit but gain severly percent of vers and a percent of haste it would probably sim as an upgrade.

[ardomur]

I'm just gonna guess... If you throw out a Flurry Proc you are Ice-Lancing right after??
If there are 2 Targets, ONLY your main target is gonna have the Shatter Debuff and getting hit with a crit Icelance. The 2nd Target DOES NOT have the Shatter Debuff und ist getting a normal Ice-Lance... which has a 66% Chance to not Crit.
You could link the Log and we/you/i could check every Ice-Lance, it should be, that all those non crits are a 2nd Target, and not your first!

[Komier]

I have similar issues.

I currently sim 10k higher by equipping a 940 Reality Breacher trinket - which drops my stats to 29.64% crit, 31% haste and 8% Vers - than I do with my 905 Terror which has me sat perfectly at 33.3% crit, 31% haste, 8% vers.

I'm assuming it's because of the flat dmg increase from the intellect on the Reality Breacher and the and the higher iLvl on it for the proc outweigh the drop in crit and the 905 level proc of the Terror. Although this isn't particularly well supported by the charts I've seen for trinkets.

[Vaxah]

I'm just gonna guess... If you throw out a Flurry Proc you are Ice-Lancing right after??
If there are 2 Targets, ONLY your main target is gonna have the Shatter Debuff and getting hit with a crit Icelance. The 2nd Target DOES NOT have the Shatter Debuff und ist getting a normal Ice-Lance... which has a 66% Chance to not Crit.
You could link the Log and we/you/i could check every Ice-Lance, it should be, that all those non crits are a 2nd Target, and not your first!

This.

Looking at the Details screenshot, it was on Sisters of the moon, so it would probably be the case.

Another possibility, looking at the "minimum" damage, is that you could have thrown some ice lance without FoF/Shatter from Flurry. On Sisters of the moon this is 99% caused by using an Ice Lance after Flurry while the Owl-thing is alive. Anyway, talking about ST I do this in some case scenario: if you have to move a little (shimmer on cd or keeping it ready due to some fight mechanic), if you have no proc, you have not so much to do, just Ice Barrier or using Ice Lance without FoF. If I just thrown a FO and i have no procs i use Blizzard, not sure if worth, and usually rare not having a proc if you just used FO, but still another option.

I can't see other possible options tbh

[Fnoptik]

There is a known issue with Simcraft devaluing crit early because of how it generates stat weights (so it is still your best stat up until 13334 crit rating aka 33.34%).

Yes, simcraft always (1 target sims, from 7.2) weigh 31%+ crit less than vers, haste, int.
At least for me.
But, why you think this is some kind of issue?
Besides simcraft stat weight, there are other stat weight proof?

[Jezrien]

Because with 33% you have guaranteed crit with every shatter.

[Fnoptik]

Because with 33% you have guaranteed crit with every shatter.

Yes, but this fact does not guaranteed that crit weight stay high till shatter cap.

[Jezrien]

Actually it does. Mage stat weight looks like this:
1. Crit till 33%
2. Haste till approx. 26%.
3. Vers is near the haste at 26% and has more weight after it.
4. Mastery.
5. Crit after 33%.

[Fnoptik]

Actually it does. Mage stat weight looks like this:
1. Crit till 33%
2. Haste till approx. 26%.
3. Vers is near the haste at 26% and has more weight after it.
4. Mastery.
5. Crit after 33%.

If you said that simc have issue with correct weigh of crit after 31%, you have other proof besides fact "shatter cap = 33%"?

[Drozzy]

If you said that simc have issue with correct weigh of crit after 31%, you have other proof besides fact "shatter cap = 33%"?

Sorry about a delay in the response. To answer your question, the reason Simcraft devalues crit early is because of the method it uses to generate stat weights. Simcraft evaluates your stat weights by using this process for each stat: 1) Sim your character with current stats. 2) Add 'Flat Value' of one stat (I believe it's either 1500 or 2000 rating)' to your character: compare dps between the two. 3) Divide the average dps gain that was calculated by the amount of flat rating that was added (Which gives you dps gain per point, which is the weight it tells you).

So, to try to explain this briefly, the reason crit gets devalued early, is because after a certain % (which I do not know off the top of my head, probably high 20%s), the stat weight calculator starts 'giving' you more crit than would bring you to crit cap. Say it gives you 2000 crit rating, but you're only 1000 rating from cap. So half the rating gives you great dps gain up until crit cap, but the other half of the rating gives you an abysmal dps gain, because its post-cap. The simulator calculates only based on the FULL amount of crit. So the more you approach crit cap, the smaller portion of that crit is 'gives' you to figure out your weights is actually high value crit. So your crit weight will steadily decrease as you get closer and closer to cap, until it bottoms out after crit cap. As we can see from crit-capped characters' sims, crit is a very very bad stat after crit-cap.

As a side note, the reason many top-tier players say to not worry too much about crit after 31%, is because while it is great to reach crit cap, it is bad to have any crit above cap. You could swap your gear every single time your get a new piece, to try to keep yourself right at cap (which I personally do). Alternatively, you can take the minor gearing inefficiency, and accept being a little below cap, because then if you happen to get gear that gives you more crit (like getting a flat ilvl upg or getting a new piece that has crit), you won't put yourself over crit cap.

[Fnoptik]

Thank you for such detailed answer, i thought that "flat value of stat" that simc add in stat weight mode are smaller.